The Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) has developed a standardised set of climate change scenarios for the rail industry, to enable a consistent approach to climate change risk, vulnerability assessments, project and asset designs and strategic planning activities.
Climate projections estimate how future climate conditions could change over time, including temperature, rainfall, and sea levels. They are based on different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, using climate models to predict potential outcomes under different assumptions about human activities.
The projections set out:
- How hot summer temperatures might be.
- The frequency of intense storms or heavy rainfall.
- How quickly sea levels might rise along coastal tracks.
There are multiple future climate change scenarios, and it can be difficult to know which ones to use to assess the climate implications for the railway. As a result, RSSB hosted a workshop for members of its Climate Change Adaptation Working Group where it was agreed the industry should use a standardised set of climate change scenarios.
The primary agreed scenarios are:
- RCP 6.0. This assumes moderate warming, with global temperatures likely to rise by about 2-3°C by 2100. Aligned with the currently observed emissions levels. The primary scenario for risk assessments, design of assets and new railway projects and the identification of interventions.
- RCP 8.5. The high emission scenario, often called the “business-as usual” scenario. It models what the future looks like if global emissions are not reduced. It assumes global temperatures will rise by 4°C or more. The primary scenario for stress testing infrastructure and testing against high-intensity rainfall
The chosen scenarios can be used in a systematic and practical way to incorporate resilience into rail, including the design and operation of rail infrastructure and services.
Natalie Rees, Head of Sustainable Development and Climate Change at Transport for Wales and Chair of the Climate Change Adaptation Working Group said:
"Climate change will increase the severity and frequency of extreme weather. By working together and planning for this now through policy, research, communication and better decision making we can help to provide safer, more reliable and more resilient services and infrastructure."
"Over the past few years, organisations within the rail industry have been working increasingly closely together on climate change adaptation to support each other, share lessons and build resilience to climate change within the railway system. Members of the Climate Change Adaptation Working Group (CCAWG) agreed to collaborate by taking a joined-up approach to unifying climate change scenarios to use across the rail sector when assessing risk, designing assets and undertaking long term strategic planning.”
Samuel Jones, RSSB’s Environment Specialist, said:
“For years, the rail industry has taken different approaches to climate change projection, with some planning for moderate temperature rises, with others assuming worst-case extremes.”
“Understanding climate change projections can be challenging due to their complexity and volume. By using an agreed set of projections, across a range of scenarios, the rail industry will be better placed to manage the risks associated with climate change.”
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