The National Audit Office (NAO) has released an update following the cancellation of Phase 2 of HS2.
In a striking report, the NAO recommended that the Department for Transport (DfT) may have to incentivise people not to travel by rail. This comes as HS2 Ltd estimates a potential 17% reduction in capacity in Manchester and Birmingham, as HS2 services replace conventional services.
The DfT is also exploring options to run HS2 trains north of Birmingham, although additional work at stations such as Crewe and Preston. The report states, however, that these services would likely run more slowly than existing trains due to speed restrictions for non-tilt trains on the West Coast Main Line.
The NAO said that £30.1bn in 2019 prices has so far been spent on HS2, with £27.8bn of this total spent on Phase 1. Meanwhile, HS2 Ltd estimates that closing down Phase 2 of HS2 will take three years at a further cost of up to £100 million in 2024 prices.
Both the DfT and HS2 Ltd do not believe that the current funding envelope for Phase 1, amounting to £44.6 bn in 2019 prices, is not enough to cover the cost of the project’s completion. The DfT estimates a cost of between £45-54bn, while HS2 Ltd estimates a cost of between £49-57bn.
The DfT is also establishing a strategy to recoup as much money as possible from the £592 million worth of land purchased for Phase 2 which is no longer required.
Elsewhere, the DfT has decided that all platforms will still be built as planned at Birmingham Curzon Street, even though they will not all now be operationalised.
The DfT still expects Phase 1 of HS2 to start running between Birmingham and Old Oak Common between 2029 and 2033, with Old Oak Common as the interim London terminus. The Department has not yet given a revised date for when it expects HS2 services to run from London Euston.
Image credit: iStock
